The VW Dilemma
2015/10, the diesel dilemma: VW really screwed up there. I hope it doesn't kill the motor as it does have potential looking at Mazda. BMW came away clean and hopefully so will Mercedes-Benz. The problem was that VW wanted to do it without the piss - sorry urea - and in trying too hard has actually pissed off a lot of people.
I believe, as some pundits in the press have already mentioned, that the system is at fault too. Folk always look for loopholes in the laws & rules made by governing bodies and find them from taxation to food production and everything in between. If, no, when they change the testing procedure it will prove that point. Governments themselves and the financial institutions are the biggest benders of rules meant to do one thing and turn out to be bendable.
Now that the press is creating a witch hunt it will first blow up into a huge balloon that VW has to somehow deflate. My guess is that they will modify the (Bosch) computer software to conform to what Bosch originally intended and to meet legal requirements and pay off consumers who say their cars no longer have the power promised - or simply add urea, which is a much bigger technical undertaking and might be offered as a costly alternative. We'll have to wait and see. Whatever transpires, it'll cost VW dearly in money and reputation, and therefore also sales,. The loss of company value is also important for the shareholders, but VW has, I'm sure, cash reserves enough to ride this storm and are already cutting investments to ensure that is the case. I wonder, if push comes to shove, if this is another case of the “it's too big to allow to collapse” syndrome as exercised in the USA.
Regarding the USA, that was a future market with currently only some 1% of sales going to diesel passenger vehicles, and Japan, as we all know, doesn't have opinions, hence the silent creeping diesel sales of BMW, MB and Mazda. As such no big loss, but the investments made for sales in the US are enormous plus the costs of sorting out this situation physically and the loss of face and company value, not to mention having to work out a new marketing plan for expansion...
Have I missed anything? Maybe lots, but it will blow over as electric cars are still a ways off and Elon's cost structure and fuelling infrastructures are not far enough advanced as yet. He's already trying to get into India with solar power to charge the cars to get round the lack of power infrastructure. I can't yet imagine rural India having the wherewithal to be able to afford that solution in large quantities - and then there'll likely be huge gaps between charging locations, at first for sure.
I believe, as some pundits in the press have already mentioned, that the system is at fault too. Folk always look for loopholes in the laws & rules made by governing bodies and find them from taxation to food production and everything in between. If, no, when they change the testing procedure it will prove that point. Governments themselves and the financial institutions are the biggest benders of rules meant to do one thing and turn out to be bendable.
Now that the press is creating a witch hunt it will first blow up into a huge balloon that VW has to somehow deflate. My guess is that they will modify the (Bosch) computer software to conform to what Bosch originally intended and to meet legal requirements and pay off consumers who say their cars no longer have the power promised - or simply add urea, which is a much bigger technical undertaking and might be offered as a costly alternative. We'll have to wait and see. Whatever transpires, it'll cost VW dearly in money and reputation, and therefore also sales,. The loss of company value is also important for the shareholders, but VW has, I'm sure, cash reserves enough to ride this storm and are already cutting investments to ensure that is the case. I wonder, if push comes to shove, if this is another case of the “it's too big to allow to collapse” syndrome as exercised in the USA.
Regarding the USA, that was a future market with currently only some 1% of sales going to diesel passenger vehicles, and Japan, as we all know, doesn't have opinions, hence the silent creeping diesel sales of BMW, MB and Mazda. As such no big loss, but the investments made for sales in the US are enormous plus the costs of sorting out this situation physically and the loss of face and company value, not to mention having to work out a new marketing plan for expansion...
Have I missed anything? Maybe lots, but it will blow over as electric cars are still a ways off and Elon's cost structure and fuelling infrastructures are not far enough advanced as yet. He's already trying to get into India with solar power to charge the cars to get round the lack of power infrastructure. I can't yet imagine rural India having the wherewithal to be able to afford that solution in large quantities - and then there'll likely be huge gaps between charging locations, at first for sure.